Elizabeth (greyautumnrain) wrote,

The Trumps of Doom

I often have the urge to post about current events, but usually don't get around to it for one reason or another. Maybe this time I will actually post this.

I am convinced that Donald Trump will win the election this year. I don't even think it will be very close.

What's that I hear you say? "Inconceivable!" You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.

Trump will win, not that he really has any merit as a candidate, but because of the two folks who will have major party nominations he is more clearly the anti-establishment candidate. One of the reasons Sanders was doing so well was that he is also an anti-establishment candidate, he just happened to be a different brand of anti-establishment. If the Democratic party field had started out as crowded as the Republican field we might well have seen a Trump-Sanders showdown. The fact that it even was mildly possible speaks to how much being anti-establishment is an advantage right now.

People aren't happy with the establishment right now and rightfully so. Working and middle class people have for a long time been seeing their real incomes shrink, college tuition is sky-high and only getting higher, and more and more people are coming to the conclusion that things are getting worse for them and their families, and there is no end in sight. The problem is that there is no consensus on the best way to fix this problem. I don't even think most people are really trying to fix the problem even, they're just trying to make pieces of the problem better, or getting band-aids for bits of the problem applied. Access to affordable health care, and student loans are examples of this. I'd also say that immigration is seen by some as part of the problem, as globalization has certainly been part of what is keeping wages down. Given the lack of any clear way to solve big issue, or even very much real talk about the big underlying issue, I think most people are just inclined to vote for the anti-establishment person because while they probably haven't thought to much about the specifics they probably do feel that the establishment is not on their side.

Of course I don't think Sanders supporters are going to go out and vote for Trump, but they don't have to. All they have to do is not vote for Clinton, or even just not turn out quite as heavily in key states. That is way the electoral system works in our country, it all depends on how many senior citizens in Florida feel that it's worth it to leave the house on election day. Trump's supporters are fairly enthusiastic, and people who would have preferred a different Republican president will no doubt be rallied to vote for him if only to stop Clinton getting elected. I think 'Stop Hillary' will work better than 'Stop Trump' for two reasons. The first is that Clinton is very much an establishment person, and the second is that whatever Trumps various shortcomings he is in possession of a Y chromosome in a society where there is still a fair bit of subconscious sexism.

What will happen after the election? I don't think he's going to solve the big problem that get him elected. I don't think he'll be easily gotten rid of either. As the Donald says, he's a "winner". Of course I also have all the best words, so I understand that "winner" actually means narcissistic sociopath. The times are right for a "winner", and I'll just wait for the big crisis in 2020 plus or minus some.

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